One day out: Democrats favored for House, Senate hinges on seven toss-ups
Forecasters and polls give Democrats a clear edge for the House and a narrower one for the Senate going into Tuesday, with a record early vote already in. Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball calls the House "almost certain to flip," and the Senate much less settled.
The math: Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four; a 50-50 split leaves Republicans in control through Vice President Vance. In the House, Republicans hold 218 seats plus an allied independent, Democrats 214, with two vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of three. Cook Political Report projects Democratic gains of 12 to 25 House seats and makes Democrats slight Senate favorites, while saying Republicans keep a plausible but less likely path.
Cook rates seven Senate seats toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Michigan is the only one Democrats hold. Forbes' Sunday roundup lists YouGov numbers: Maine, Jackson 52, Sen. Collins 47; Texas, Talarico 51, Paxton 47; Ohio, Brown 50, Sen. Husted 48; Iowa, Turek 50, Hinson 49; and Nebraska, Sen. Ricketts and independent Osborn tied at 49. Emerson has Kansas at Hamilton 49, Sen. Marshall 45. October polls had Peltola up 2 to 7 in Alaska and El-Sayed up 1 to 7 in Michigan. North Carolina looks like the likeliest flip: Cook rates it Likely Democratic, and Elon has Cooper up 52-39.
Nationally, the final NBC News poll, taken Oct. 28-30 among 1,000 registered voters with a 3.1-point margin of error, has Democrats ahead 52-45, with Trump at 40% approval and 60% disapproval. Averages put the Democratic lead at about 8 to 9 points. Early voting topped 54 million by one count early Monday. The University of Florida's Election Lab had 53.1 million as of Sunday morning, against about 46 million early votes in all of 2022. Registered Democrats led about 11 million to 8 million, but only 27 states report party, and party ballots are not candidate votes.
Republicans say polls understate them: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last month the party will outperform them, and Speaker Mike Johnson told supporters to dismiss bad numbers. Democrats' House campaign chair, Rep. Suzan DelBene, predicts they will retake the majority. Sen. Raphael Warnock told CNN he is nauseously optimistic. Polls close Tuesday night.
Sources checked: Asharq Al-Awsat (Nov 2, 12:36 a.m. ET, link), Iowa Public Radio (Nov 1, 10:18 p.m. ET, link), NBC News poll via Yahoo (Nov 1, 9:00 a.m. ET, link), Forbes (Nov 1, link), Al Jazeera, early vote (Nov 1, link), Al Jazeera, polls (Oct 31, updated Nov 1, link), Yahoo News (Oct 31, updated 5:35 p.m. ET, link), Newsweek (Oct 31, 8:17 a.m. ET, link), Election Central on forecasts (Oct 31, 9:54 a.m. ET, link), Epoch Times on Cook (Oct 30, link), ABC News (Oct 27, 7:32 a.m. ET, link), Fox News (Oct 21, updated 2:51 p.m. ET, link)